A Clash of Superpowers
Moscow, Beijing, and Washington circle Ukraine
As we hit the one year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the President of the United States was offering a stunning show of American support by visiting Ukraine, and meeting with President Volodymyr Zelensky in his battered but free capital city of Kyiv, as air raid sirens screamed in the background. Biden promised an additional half billion dollars in economic aid and military support, to say nothing of the unambiguous message his presence conferred, one of enduring American friendship and a rapidly deepening alliance.
The symbolism was clear: America’s commitment to Kyiv is ironclad.
The surprise visit came a day before Russian President Vladimir Putin is poised to deliver a major speech in Moscow, as he tries to reframe a year of bitter military setbacks in his “special military operation,” as Russia launches a new and already troubled spring offensive. It’s likely to be another fiery diatribe, animated by false comparisons between Putin’s war in Ukraine and World War Two, and the poisonous idea of an existential battle between Moscow and the democratic West that’s arming Kyiv to fight for its own survival.
Nevertheless, after Joe Biden’s visit, Putin’s rhetoric can be expected to harden, and become even more threatening, as he tries to salvage his misbegotten campaign by doubling down, and further raising the stakes.
Indeed, Putin ordered his strategic nuclear forces on their highest combat alert today, conducting grim launch exercises somewhere off the coast with his nuclear submarines. It was only the latest indication that the world is witnessing a perilous clash of geopolitical titans, one that seems to become more dangerous by the day, as two nuclear-armed superpowers match weapons and wills in a proxy contest in the middle of Europe, as a third superpower weighs its options.
A dangerous game
Notably, the White House informed the Kremlin about President Biden’s visit beforehand, in what his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, dryly referred to as “deconfliction purposes.”
In reality, this was likely a stark warning to Russia to briefly stand down, or face overwhelming consequences. Russian propaganda immediately characterized Biden’s 6-hour visit as something that Putin “allowed” to happen, as the Kremlin tried, and failed, to appear tough.
But nationalistic military bloggers caught on, and quickly characterized the American president’s visit as yet another humiliating failure for Russia, and wondered why the Kremlin’s arch enemy was allowed to waltz in and out of Kyiv. Certainly, Biden’s visit had the flavor of a direct challenge to Vladimir Putin, in what was only the latest step up the mutual ladder of escalation both leaders seem to be climbing.
In any case, the leader of the free world offered the people of Ukraine the gift of American support, and they were overjoyed to receive it, as Russia continues to try to wipe their nation off the map, fighting a war with global implications for the Western led order. Biden didn’t mince words: “Putin’s war of conquest is failing.” He said he would support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”
The Chinese variable
Meanwhile, the U.S. apparently picked up, and quickly disseminated, intelligence showing that Beijing is seriously considering providing lethal weapons to their Russian partners, who continue to struggle on the battlefield, despite a massive troop mobilization.
It’s a move Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, would carry the most serious ramifications, during an extraordinarily frosty meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference. This came after a week of high tension between Washington and Beijing over a brazen breach of America’s continental air space by a Chinese surveillance balloon, which captivated the nation, until President Biden finally ordered it blasted out of the sky in the water near the Carolinas.
However, if China does begin sending weapons to Russia, as Washington believes they are now considering doing, it would be a critical development, as a third hostile superpower enters an already crowded proxy war in Europe. It would immediately fracture the relationship between the United States and China, and between China and the European allies backing the U.S., and underscore the hardening Cold War-style confrontation between east and west, autocracy and democracy.
It would be a profound escalation in Beijing’s alliance with Moscow, and one more tear in the global system of peace and stability, already ruptured by the Russian invasion, and continuing to fracture further. Still, China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, was in Moscow meeting with officials in the Kremlin today, as Joe Biden visited Kyiv.
But a spokesman at the Chinese foreign ministry, Wang Wenbin, angrily denied Blinken’s accusation that Beijing was considering sending weapons, retorting that it was America “that has been incessantly supplying weapons to the battlefield, and the U.S. is not qualified to issue any orders to China.” Wenbin accused the United States of spreading “fake news,” and said China would “continue firmly standing on the side of dialogue and the side of peace.”
American resolve meets Chinese ambition
Nonetheless, Biden’s visit should give the Chinese some pause, regardless of their foreign ministry’s overheated rhetoric. America’s commitment to Kyiv is deep, and quite evolved, while relations between Beijing and Washington are already incredibly strained.
Chinese weapons deliveries would be the final nail in the coffin in Sino-American relations, an eventuality both Washington and Beijing would like to avoid if at all possible. Still, the relationship between the two superpowers is already at a 40 year low, and with plenty of room to continue sinking precipitously lower.
But Beijing isn’t ready to abandon its junior partner in the Kremlin, despite embarrassing battlefield failures, and Russia’s largely fumbling military performance. Rather, Beijing continues to prioritize challenging the American-led global order, and overtaking Washington on the world stage.
Moreover, Beijing’s designs on Taiwan continue to animate Chinese policy, and a Russian loss in Ukraine would dim those prospects significantly.
Thus, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, and Vladimir Putin all have their eyes trained on Ukraine, peering into a conflict that has already become a bitter geopolitical struggle, and which risks deteriorating into a full blown nuclear nightmare the longer it goes on.
It’s difficult to overstate the danger of miscalculation and miscommunication leading to a catastrophic outcome, as tensions rise, and a hot war in Europe consumes the global agenda. It’s a dangerous moment, with little discussion of negotiation, and no signs that Vladimir Putin is prepared to do anything but escalate.
Tragically, instead of pressuring Putin to stand down from his disastrous invasion, Beijing is considering adding more fuel to the fire, in what would be a perilous decision, with ominous implications for Ukraine, and the world at large.