Vladimir Putin Strikes Back

Ukraine and Russia trade escalating blows

If Ukraine has shown the world the extent of its defiance in the face of the carnage and suffering wrought by Vladimir Putin’s brutal invasion, Russia has shown the world something of its cruelty, alongside its withering incompetence, and its blinding hubris. With the war spiraling out of the Kremlin’s control, amidst shrinking territory and a badly depleted and barely functional military, there’s a sense of the dark possibilities at hand, right at the junction between savagery and stupidity, cunning and crazy. 

What is Vladimir Putin capable of? Anything.

In the last week, those possibilities have crystalized into an American president openly dreading the “prospect of nuclear armageddon,” amid a sense in the West that Vladimir Putin has backed himself into such a tight corner that he might lash out with the unthinkable to escape the confines of the debacle he unleashed. Thus, when Ukrainian spies detonated explosives at the Kerch strait bridge two days ago, a vanity project and a powerful symbol of Putin’s imperial aspirations, there was palpable fear that Putin might actually resort to using a tactical nuclear weapon in retaliation.

This alone speaks volumes about the peril of this war: nuclear war is decidedly back on the global agenda, a terrifying reality.

Instead, however, Putin responded to this latest humiliation by firing wave after indiscriminate wave of cruise missiles, rockets, and kamikaze drones into the heart of unoccupied Kyiv, and other major cities across Ukraine, killing at least 14 civilians, and destroying critical infrastructure. While it was a brutal response, it was also a telling one; the Kremlin was openly and deliberately slaughtering civilians, after seven months of dismissing mass graves and murdered civilians as merely manufactured provocations, and Western inventions. 

There were no denials this time around. Why? Vladimir Putin was anxious to make a point, written in the blood of innocents. Ultimately, however, he came out looking worse for it. Like nearly everything else Putin has done since he invaded Ukraine, his latest outrage produced fatally counterproductive results.

Hawks

Indeed, Monday’s so-called mass attack seemed to be aimed as much at Putin’s hawkish and increasingly vocal critics in Russia as it was at the Ukrainians it targeted. With Russia’s mounting failures on the battlefield, and a botched mobilization stirring unrest at home, Putin has begun taking lacerating flak, in the form of vicious critiques of the Ministry of Defense from some of his closest cronies.

This was politically unsustainable for the strongman in the Kremlin.

Thus, the volleys of cruise missiles lobbed into cities were Putin’s bloody retort, a way to silence his critics at home, at least until the Russian military suffers its next major debacle. Of course, the bombings won’t make a single bit of difference on the battlefield, which is increasingly being vacated by a spent Russian army, as it retreats nearly across the board. Rather, it was an empty salve for Putin’s damaged ego, an escalation insofar as it proved the Russian military could still kill at will, even if it can’t destroy the opposing army facing it across the battlefield.

It was a gesture of impotence, and frustrated desperation. It demonstrated Russian weakness more than anything else. With the Russian military falling off its back feet, it was Putin’s effort to reclaim respect, inspire fear, and recapture the broken narrative. It’s unlikely to pay dividends, however, as Ukraine’s military presses its advantage against battered Russian battalions, outfitted with rusted Kalashnikov’s and poorly trained conscripts, felons, and mercenaries.

It seems killing civilians is no substitute for a military that can’t defeat its adversaries on the battlefield, a lesson Putin should’ve learned long ago.

Resistance

Indeed, the entire Ukrainian nation has been utterly united in hatred of Russia’s imperial ambitions, foisted on them so savagely, amid a profound and deepening loathing of Vladimir Putin personally. Putin’s slaughter of civilians has cohered the Ukrainian nation and assisted in its defense, and thus inspired deep resistance to becoming satraps of the Kremlin.

Like the Nazi “blitz” bombing of London during World War II, Russia’s campaign torturing and killing Ukraine’s civilians has backfired spectacularly, resulting in a determined national desire to beat back the Russians, whatever the cost. 

The psychological impact of Russia’s brutality has been immense, in Ukraine and the world at large, a decisive factor in this conflict.

Already, President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s stalwart wartime leader, is seeking to capitalize on Putin’s latest miscalculation; he declared that Russia’s war is “failing,” while pleading with G7/NATO countries for advanced air defense systems to thwart more bombings of Kyiv. 

And Zelensky just might get them.

As Russia’s war machine falters, and looks increasingly ineffective on the battlefield, Ukraine’s army continues to receive training, critical weapon systems, and sophisticated military technology from the West, aghast at Putin’s aggression. Britain’s electronic intelligence agency recently said that Russia’s war materiel is lacking, supplies and weapons “are running out,” even as Ukraine masters the art of drone warfare, and other advanced technologies to defend itself.

Putin’s bombing of civilians won’t change the equation of this conflict, which continues to tilt heavily toward Kyiv, changing the balance of power on the battlefield frightfully quickly. In reality, Russia’s forces seem to be reaching the limits of what they can accomplish with conventional arms, again raising the prospect of the use of nuclear weapons.

Strategic imperatives

Certainly, the government in Kyiv shows zero inclination to negotiate, and these bombings have only stiffened their resolve to fight. With Russia’s worsening weakness and poor morale readily apparent, the threat of political instability is in Moscow, rather than Kyiv, as Putin had hoped.

Thus, Vladimir Putin’s made yet another grave miscalculation. His actions in Ukraine have been detached from reality from the outset, when he launched a war of aggression based on restoring the “historical unity” of Russia and Ukraine, only to be unable to conquer Kyiv, unable to conquer the Donbas, and unable to coerce the government in Kyiv into capitulation or negotiation. 

Rather, Putin’s brutal war has done more to unify the Ukrainian people than anything a political leader in Kyiv might’ve accomplished, while uniting the global West in absolute opposition to his vicious war, strengthening the NATO alliance he so loathes. Even China and India, Russia’s erstwhile allies, recently called for deescalation following Putin’s strikes on Kyiv, a notable setback.

Thus, Putin remains trapped in a tightening vise of his own creation, incapable of dominating the battlefield, and quickly losing control of the political narrative at home. His strikes may have briefly mollified critics inside Russia, at least temporarily, but they won’t reverse Russia’s inexorable slide toward defeat in this war.

Rather, they’ve merely reminded Ukraine and the world that Vladimir Putin is a caged lion, wounded and dangerous, vainly searching for a way to win what is an unwinnable war. As Putin watches his military and political outlook deteriorate, it’s likely we will see more blind lashing out from the Kremlin, more incredible violence visited on the Ukrainian people.

What we won’t see is a Russian victory.

Indeed, when Putin realizes his strikes have failed to produce the results he so desperately craves, Russia’s massive arsenal of nuclear weapons will continue to beckon him, even as they threaten humanity writ large. It’s a move the world prays he doesn’t make, even while acknowledging there is a distinct possibility he might, in what would be his most dire escalation yet.

Beginning a nuclear war would be a suicidal miscalculation, but that doesn’t mean he won’t roll the iron dice, a last desperate gamble for all the chips on the table. 

God forbid.